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Main » Finance & Banking » Stocks & Equities
 

Bottoms Ups

 
Author: Al Thomas

If you have talked to a stock broker or financial planner in the last few days I will bet they all agree that there are some great bargains out there and now is the time to start buying in anticipation that the market will go back up. You will also find agreement from the talking heads on CNBC and those talk radio station stock mavens. No one says sell. It looks like bottom pickers heaven.

A year ago when the Nasdaq was 2000 points higher they were telling you the same thing. Buy. Buy. Buy. If they are so smart to get you to buy now then why weren't they smart enough to tell you to sell when it was way up there? There are two basic rules for professional traders: never let a profitable trade go to a loss and never take a large loss. The talking heads are either not professionals or don't understand their business.

Since the beginning of the year the tech stocks have lost 34% and from last year they are down from the highs 65% and it looks like they are going lower. Isn't it time to end the bloodletting and sell? The problem with the small investor is he doesn't believe he has a loss until he sells. Wall Street has taught him that the market 'always comes back'. Folks, not this time.

All classes of mutual funds have posted losses in the first quarter of 2001 for the first time since 1980.

Has your broker or financial planner called you to sell out to go to the safe haven of a money market fund? I will bet he hasn't. Unfortunately these "experts" are not taught to protect your capital. They will watch their customers' account dwindle away 30%, 40% 50% and more and never do anything about it. It isn't their money. It is yours. You have to take the responsibility to guard it. The average broker has 300 clients. Unless you are a 7-figure account you will not receive any attention. Of the 77,000,000 mutual fund owners in the U.S. 80% of those accounts have less than $50,000. Their advice is either none or bad.

We know the economy is slowing down and has been since early last fall. The market was continuing to go up in anticipation and was ignoring underlying facts. The emotional enthusiasm was carrying it to new highs almost every day. Of course, Mr. Greenspan didn't help anything by raising interest rates when he should have known better. It is the brokers' job to sell stock and make commission, but it should also be his job to advise the neophyte investor to protect his capital.

The trend is your friend. The trend is down. It is still not too late to sell and put what's left of your cash in a money market account. Forget about your losses. That money is gone. You must protect what you have left. Never try to pick the bottom. There are no "bargains" at this level. Cash is the best position right now.

Author Bio:

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron?s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.

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